Obama ties legacy to Iran nuclear deal
With
a framework deal to halt Tehran's nuclear program, Obama moved closer
to the kind of staggering diplomatic breakthrough with the Islamic
Republic that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
If
the political agreement reached in Switzerland turns into a genuine
pact honored by both sides, Obama will be entitled to a place in history
as the leader who defused an intensely bitter estrangement with Iran.
But
he also took personal ownership of a fraught negotiating process full
of false starts and deep divisions, one that hinges on the sides'
ability to hammer out a host of devilish details by a June 30 final
deadline in the face of vocal opposition from domestic and international
critics.
If the deal falls apart, it
will be hard to refute charges by critics that Obama's insistence on
negotiating directly with U.S. enemies -- a tactic at the heart of his
political philosophy -- is deeply naive and futile.
The
risks of Obama's choice, and the challenge of resolving tough issues to
get to a final agreement by July, were clear within minutes of news
breaking that a deal was reached in Lausanne.
Obama
quickly appeared in the White House Rose Garden, not for the victory
lap that presidents often take in this picturesque spot, but to launch
an impassioned defense of the contentious deal.
Obama's sales pitch
His sales pitch was concise: There is no other better way to prevent Iran from moving covertly to build a nuclear weapon.
"When
you hear the inevitable critics of the deal sound off, ask them a
simple question: Do you really think that this verifiable deal, if fully
implemented, backed by the world's major powers, is a worse option than
the risk of another war in the Middle East?" Obama said.
"Is
it worse than doing what we've done for almost two decades with Iran
moving forward with its nuclear program and without robust inspections?"
The
question now is whether Obama's skills of persuasion -- hardly his
strong suit -- will convince critics that his negotiators got a good
deal. First signs were not encouraging for the White House.
Republican
House Speaker John Boehner warned that Congress would continue to press
for a vote on the deal, which might derail its long-term prospects
given the extent of Republican opposition. Another pending bill that has
the potential to scuttle the negotiations would impose additional
sanctions on Tehran.
Republican Sen.
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina attacked the president's posture on
Thursday as he, too, emphasized that Congress must review a final deal.
"We simply cannot take President Obama's word that it is this or war," he said.
The
March 31 deadline -- twice pushed back -- was originally imposed on the
process in order to help Obama's political prospects of selling the
deal to Congress, which has final say on lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Several Democrats had indicated that they planned to join with
Republicans on the controversial bills, but they pledged to hold up
consideration of the measures until late March so Obama could show the
talks were making progress and should be bolstered rather than tanked by
legislators.
While the Republicans'
response Thursday demonstrated that the framework deal had not placated
them, skeptical Democrats were more noncommittal on how they would
respond.
Skeptics in Congress
"We
now need to take a close look at the details to determine if the
compromises made are worth the dismantling of years of pressure built on
Iran," said Rep. Eliot Engel of New York, the top Democrat on the House
Foreign Affairs Committee.
New York Rep. Steve Israel more clearly showed that Obama could well face an intraparty challenge.
"The
details deserve and must get a vote by the U.S. Congress," he said in a
statement. "Until the full details are provided to Congress on June
30th, you can keep me in the 'highly skeptical' column."
Obama
also faces intense displeasure from many of America's closest allies in
the Middle East, countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia that are
directly in the Iranian line of fire. They are concerned that the United
States may be giving up leverage on Iran by lifting sanctions while
leaving Tehran's nuclear infrastructure intact.
The
president nodded to this challenge in the Rose Garden when he said that
he would invite the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council to Camp
David this spring to discuss raging Middle East turmoil, much of it
aided by Tehran.
He also spoke to Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom he has feuded over Iran.
Netanyahu
has powerful allies on Capitol Hill, and will be sure to lobby for the
bills seeking to constrain the administration in its deal-making with
Iran as the final deadline nears.
Israeli criticism
Already
Thursday, Israel called the celebrations in Switzerland "disconnected
from reality" and said Iran would use a "poor framework" for a "bad and
dangerous" deal to move towards nuclear war.
And
the Obama administration's Iranian counterparts have their own
treacherous path to getting approval of their part of the deal -- making
Obama's bold endorsement of the provisional agreement particularly
perilous.
Iran's top negotiator,
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javed Zarif, must convince Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and hardliners in Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Corps to accept the deal and permit its implementation.
"Javad
Zarif will have to sell this deal like we will. His task is not simple,
or a given," a senior administration official said.
Like
Obama, Zarif wasted no time, boasting at a news conference in
Switzerland that Tehran had retained its right to enrich uranium (to
3.67 percent, according to a White House fact sheet distributed at the
deal's announcement) and would not lose its nuclear infrastructure.
And
Iranian swagger like that -- a political necessity for Zarif --
emphasizes the very aspects of the deal that make its American critics
most concerned.
Another key point of
contention is how comprehensive the inspections will be. While the
U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency will have unprecedented access
to Iran's declared nuclear facilities under the deal, many in the West
wanted inspectors to have unfettered access to any site of their
choosing since Tehran has hidden nuclear operations in the past.
The
White House fact sheet said that the IAEA inspectors "will have regular
access" to all of Iran's facilities but did not specify how that would
be achieved.
"The nuclear flaw in this
agreement is the fact that we will not be able to go anywhere, go
anytime," said Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies.
"The
IAEA is going to have to work with the Iranians. What the Iranian
government has shown over decades is the ability to defeat the IAEA with
stonewalling, delay and deviousness."
But
the senior official said that the U.S. negotiating team was confident
that the talks on a final deal would produce an agreement on a
"mechanism" that would resolve disputes over access to Iranian sites.
Skeptics
also questioned Obama's assurance that lifted sanctions could "snap
back" in place if Iran transgressed once the agreement went into force.
Debates are already raging about the sequence in which sanctions will be
lifted on Iran and on why the United States would bolster Iran's
coffers by lifting sanctions at a time when it is blaming Tehran for
destabilizing the Middle East.
White House achievements
The White House, however, has other concessions to point to.
The
deal will cut Iran's stocks of centrifuges, require the conversion of
an underground enrichment facility at Fordow to a research center and
limit the output of another reactor at Arak, among other requirements.
In
return the United States and other world powers will lift sanctions
that have throttled Iran's economy, offering it the tantalizing prospect
of a return to full membership within the international community.
Karim
Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, said the deal was close to "win, win" for both Iran and the
United States. He added, however, "We don't want to get too ahead of
ourselves."
He continued, "What was
announced today is the engagement. The wedding is scheduled to take
place in July, but there is going to be a vigorous debate about the
prenuptial agreement, and there is no guarantee this wedding will take
place on time."
Though the four-page
White House fact sheet left many technical questions unanswered, the
deal surprised some experts and political figures with its detail and
specificity.
That's something that Jim
Walsh, from the Security Studies Program at Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, suggested could help sway worried Democrats.
"I
think they have put themselves in pretty good shape to go to that
community and defend the deal. They ended up with a lot more than most
of us were expecting," Walsh said.
Still,
even Obama admitted that the success of the initiative was far from
certain. If the framework deal snags on the unresolved technical details
before the final deadline on June 30, or if Tehran tries to cheat in
years to come, Obama's hopes of a foreign policy victory for the ages
will founder as well.
"The President's
strategy has been absolutely incoherent in the Middle East in general.
He is pinning his legacy on this agreement," Republican Rep. Martha
McSally of Arizona told CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
But
so far, that legacy has received a boost from the week's events, even
though Republicans tried to paint the twice-delayed announcement of the
deal as a sign that Obama wouldn't be able to deliver. That doesn't
mean, though, that his fortunes couldn't change -- and change quickly.
"You've
got quite a significant accomplishment," Aaron David Miller, a former
U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, told CNN. "Is it perfect? No."
He
concluded, "He bet a lot on this. He's wrapped the last remaining 20
months of his presidency on what could be the most significant
accomplishment on foreign policy |
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